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| Nations embrace first-ever climate bargain on fossil powers |
The agreement reached at the COP28 climate talks in Dubai included a pledge to move away from all fossil fuels for the first time.
Sultan Al Jaber of the United Arab Emirates, who presided over this year's UN-sponsored summit, mediated a deal that was robust enough to win over the US and the European Union to the need to drastically reduce the use of fossil fuels while maintaining the support of Saudi Arabia and other oil producers.
The agreement's requirements, which helped persuade the sceptics, require nations to swiftly and justly transition their energy systems away from fossil fuels. As per the agreement, nations are also expected to participate in a worldwide transition initiative, instead of being strictly forced to undergo that change on their own.
"Together, we have faced the facts and guided the world towards the correct path," stated Al Jaber, who also holds the position of CEO at Abu Dhabi National Oil Company. On Wednesday, one day later than planned, he lowered the gavel to seal the deal. Delegates praised it and gave it cheers.
Even though the result is not as dramatic as most countries had hoped, it is nonetheless a significant step forward: Moving away from oil and gas, the fuels that have supported the world economy for decades, has not been mentioned in any previous COP text.
The speed at which that becomes a reality will be determined by investors, consumers, and national governments, not by the diplomatic wrangling that sealed the deal today. Glasgow promised two years ago to phase out coal use, but consumption has since increased, and it is still very unlikely that global warming will be kept to the 1.5C target set by the Paris Agreement.
Nevertheless, the Dubai ruling represents a significant turning point in the global transition to a low-carbon energy system. By the end of the decade, the text also commits to tripling the amount of renewable energy deployed and tripling the rate of efficiency gains. An earlier COP28 agreement establishes operations as a diligently fought fund to address the losses and damages resulting from climate change.
An agreement is only as good as how it is carried out. Al Jaber declared, "We are what we do, not what we say." "We have to take the required actions to make this agreement a reality."
The environment programme director at the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation and a seasoned US climate negotiator, Jonathan Pershing, said that the COP28 language advocating a reduction in the use of fossil fuels will send “a signal” that “the world is now thinking about it” and alter the way investors assess the risk of those ventures.
Diplomatic Win
The last-minute agreement is a diplomatic victory for the UAE and Al Jaber, who was controversially chosen to lead this year's negotiations due to his position at Adnoc. Despite some setbacks, including accusations that he used his position to promote oil deals and a disagreement regarding the science underlying climate change, he will contend that he succeeded in his mission.
Climate activists took issue with Al Jaber's decision to use his presidency to firmly integrate the oil and gas industry into the COP process, as there were more fossil fuel company representatives than at any previous summit.
More than fifty businesses came to an agreement with him to cut emissions from their own operations. It made no mention of the amount of oil and gas produced, but a commitment to cut methane pollution—which is 80 times more hazardous than carbon dioxide—to almost nothing by the end of the decade might have a significant effect on emissions.
Saudi Arabia nevertheless launched a surprise attack to thwart any attempt to incorporate a phase-out of fossil fuels in the text. Bloomberg News asked the kingdom's Energy Minister if he would be pleased to see a phase-down in the text as COP28 got underway.
"It's not at all," he answered.
Subsequently, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries wrote to its members requesting that they oppose any legislation that emphasises fossil fuels over emissions.
The alliance of oil producers was ultimately left too isolated to oppose, even though the final wording was softened to address their concerns.
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